CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-02-10T23:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29134/-1
CME Note: Partial halo shock to the north with bulk portion to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and following a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M9.0 flare from AR13576 starting at 2024-02-10T22:56Z with clear deflection NW seen as dimming and EUV wave in SDO/AIA 193, 211, 304, and 171. There is also filament ejecta seen during and following the eruption in SDO/AIA 304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 989.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 1057.22 Acceleration: -2.64877 Duration in seconds: 177875.42 Duration in days: 2.0587432 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -2.65 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 586.1 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 13/02/2024 Time: 01:00 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 36.27 hour(s)
Difference: 0.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2024-02-11T13:22Z
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